
I woke up this morning at 5 AM because I could not sleep any longer. Yes, I am too anxious for opening day of the National Football League. So I decided to see what the talking heads on television had to say about today’s games. On the NFL network, Brian Baldinger, Sterling Sharpe, and Joe Theismann host a show called playbook so I decided to watch. The focus this morning was the NFC, and therefore I was especially excited to hear what they would say about the Giants-Redskins matchup today in the Meadowlands.
Following what seems to be the kind of customary moves of reasoning among the national punditocracy, Baldinger and Sharpe constructed their respective cases for the Giants in this game with an immediate disavowal of an anticipated counterargument and then move to the “meat” of their case. Baldinger’s progression was less egregious than Sharpe’s: Baldinger said that a lot of attention will be paid to Albert Haynesworth, but Justin Tuck’s versatility is the key to the game and to the Giants’ victory. Although it is foolish to ignore the impact of the league’s best defensive tackle—who was brought in to stop the Giants’ rushing attack—his case for Tuck was compelling and the defensive end is surely a factor that Jim Zorn and his offense will have to contend with all day.
But it was Sharpe’s “argument” for the Giants that was particularly puzzling. He began by saying that he would not mention Plaxico Burress and the New York Giants again for the rest of the season, however the one thing he will say today is that Burress’ absence will be felt for some time because the receiver was such a vital target for Manning over the past few years. This point, with which most agree, was the lead in to his larger point that the Giants will be fine with their young receiver corps, but it might take a month or so for them to gel with their quarterback and be more comfortable in the system, as they get more opportunities with Burress and Toomer gone. Sharpe spent some time talking about rookie wideout Hakeem Nicks’ size and ability to out-muscle cornerbacks. He sees in Nicks great upside. But this is what was so curious about Sharpe’s analysis: because the Giants’ receivers will be get more comfortable as the season goes on and Nicks will eventually blossom into a starter, the G-men will beat the Redskins today, Sharpe seemed to suggest. It was a confusing case that made little sense. (Of course I was prepared for this: Sharpe picked the Cowboys to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl because of their running game.) But it is exactly what these pundits don’t mean or want to say that is most often what needs to be highlighted. In this case, it was Sharpe’s focus on the Giants’ wide receivers that has to be spotlighted. And it is there I begin with my keys to the game. (Theismann, to his credit, talked about the inexperienced Giants’ receivers in an effort to make a case for a Redskins’ victory. He was laughed at and called a “homer.”)
· Giants’ Receiver vs. Redskins’ Secondary: Carlos Rogers is starting and the secondary should continue to build on the solid season they had a year ago. Although they did not produce enough turnovers, the unit is rarely out of position and each player understands his respective role in Blanche’s schemes. With the improvements to the defensive line and the maturation of Chris Horton at safety, the secondary will have plenty of opportunities to produce interceptions. Furthermore, Eli Manning’s tendency to throw it up and hope for the best—and now with Super Plax gone the “best” is not there—will allow the defense to make plays on the ball. Finally, the Giants’ young receiving corps will have to gel quickly with Manning if they want to move the ball down the field. I think this is too tall a task for the unit in week 1 against a solid secondary and Manning will struggle moving the ball through the air. Advantage: Redskins’ Secondary
· Giants’ Pass Rush vs. Redskins’ Offensive Line: The Giants have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL and they excel at rushing the passer. Last year, the defensive line wore down at the end of the season, so management decided to stack up on free agents. (They also get Osi Umenyiora back after he sat out the entire year on injured reserve.) The Redskins will have to counter this fierce pass rush with a healthy Chris Samuels watching Campbell’s blind side. Next to him will be Derrick Dockery who returns to the Redskins from Buffalo. This should sure up the left side of the line. Stephon Heyer will have his hands full at right tackle again—last year on the first play of the year Justin Tuck beat Heyer for a sack. Zorn will have to counter the speed and dynamism of the Giants’ rush by putting Campbell in the shotgun—a formation with which he is comfortable—and a mix of slip screens, draws, and quick hits to receivers. Advantage: Giants’ Pass Rush
· Tom Coughlin and staff vs. Jim Zorn and staff: Last year, Clinton Portis ironically called Zorn a “genius” and it was clear that he was critiquing the first year coach. And for good reason: at times, Zorn seemed to believe his design was all the offense needed to move the ball and score. He was a bit cocky in his play calling, too, and was a bit over-confident in his system. It seems that in the off season Zorn has gotten the message and understands how X’s and O’s need bodies and only certain bodies fit certain X’s and O’s. That is, he has adapted his way to fit his player’s strength as opposed to the strength of the offensive philosophy. Coughlin is a proven winner with the Giants and he is clearly the more successful head coach. We have to keep in mind, though, that the Giants lost defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to the Rams. So, it will be interesting to see how this defense responds. However, the Giants’ staff still has the edge. Advantage: Coughlin and staff
· Albert Haynesworth et. al vs. Brandon Jacobs: The Redskins have a very good rush defense, but Jacobs and the Giants always seem to run well against them. So, Daniel Snyder went out and signed free agent Albert Haynesworth precisely for games like today’s. If Haynesworth is true to form and occupies two or three blockers at a time, the Redskins should be able to slow up Jacobs. Haynesworth should be key in this game and in the defense’s attempt to be an elite unit: although they were fourth in the league in yardage allowed, they were abysmal in getting to the quarterback and producing turnovers. Haynesworth will be valuable in this regard, but his primary task today is stopping (or allowing others to stop) Jacobs. In my view, he will successful here. Advantage: Albert Haynesworth et. al
FINAL PREDICTION: Redskins 24, Giants 17. The Redskins will be able to move the ball against the Giants banged up secondary. Manning will struggle with his new receiving corps and throw at least 1 interception. The ‘Skins’ defense will start to show flashes of dominance.




